Climate Change: a Real Issue with Real Concerns for the Midwest

Climate is changing and available evidence indicates that human activities are playing a significant role in bringing about this change. Recent increases in global averaged temperature over the last decade already appear to be outside the normal variability of temperature changes for at least the last thousand years. A number of different analyses strongly suggest that this temperature increase is resulting from rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, lending credence to concerns about much larger changes in climate being predicted for the coming decades. Computer-based models of the complex processes affecting the carbon cycle have implicated the burning of fossil fuels as a major factor in the past increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide. These models also suggest that, without major policy or technology changes, future concentrations of CO2 and several other greenhouse gases will continue to increase largely as a result of human activities. This analysis of past and future changes in the Midwest/Great Lakes region begins with a discussion of the current understanding of the concerns about climate change and the role being played by human activities. Utilizing three key sources of information – the latest generation of general circulation model results, model output based on the IPCC SRES scenarios, and observational data characterizing climate over the past century – we develop a comprehensive picture of the potential changes in climate that may be expected to occur over the Midwest/Great Lakes area during the next 100 years. We then examine the possible effects of projected changes in climate on the Midwest region, emphasizing changes in aspects of climate that have potential impacts on human health, ecosystems, water resources, and agriculture. Climate Change in the Midwest